Presidential visit • Uncertainty abounds in the wake of the Arab Spring.
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Washington • On his second trip to the Middle East as U.S. commander in chief, President Barack Obama this week will confront a political and strategic landscape nearly unrecognizable from the one he encountered on his first trip to the region shortly after assuming office in 2009.
Gone are the authoritarian regimes and leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, and the once seemingly indestructible Assad regime in Syria is tottering on the brink of collapse. Uncertainty abounds in the wake of the revolutions that have convulsed the Arab world for the past two years and shaken many of the strong but imperfect pillars of stability on the planet's most politically volatile patch of land.
And the few constants are hardly cause for cheer: a moribund Israeli-Palestinian peace process that remains mired in mutual distrust and recrimination, an Iran that seemingly inches closer to nuclear weapons capability despite intensified international sanctions, and the ever-growing threat from extremists.
U.S. officials have presented Obama's visit to Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan as a symbolic, hand-holding trip. Obama's goals are to reassure nervous Israelis that the U.S. has their back.
It may seem incongruous that an American president feels the need to calm Israeli's fears about Washington's commitment to their security at a time when officials from both countries say U.S. and Israeli interests are more inextricably linked than ever before.
However, one reason for the uneasiness is the strained personal relationship between Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They and their surrogates have sparred, most notably over Jewish settlements in areas claimed by the Palestinians, numerous times, leading many to speak of an open rift. The chill has manifested itself in unprecedented low approval ratings for Obama in Israel. The centerpiece of Obama's trip will be a speech to the Israeli people to pledge friendship and security.
Much of the symbolism around Obama's speech is aimed at showing his understanding of the Jewish people's millennia-old connection to the land that is now Israel, and his awareness that the modern State of Israel was not created merely as a consequence of the Holocaust. A visit to an Iron Dome battery, part of the missile defense system the U.S. has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into, will underscore Washington's investment in Israel's security.
Obama left for Israel Tuesday night.