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Newly energized social conservatives, fresh off their success in helping to re-elect President Bush, are viewing Gov. Mitt Romney's prospective White House candidacy in 2008 with deep suspicion because of his perceived support for abortion rights and a proposed gay-marriage ban - but that ban would allow civil unions for gay couples, analysts and activists around the country say.

Though Romney is generally viewed as a conservative in the Massachusetts political climate, among activists who are crucial in GOP presidential politics, he is seen as a moderate on the two key subjects - abortion and gay rights - that galvanized voters on a moral issues agenda in the recently completed presidential campaign.

"A pro-abortion candidate would cause civil war within the party,'' said Tom McClusky, director of governmental affairs at the Family Research Council, a national advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., that strongly opposes abortion and considers civil unions a threat to the concept of traditional marriage.

"I would see that as tearing apart the Republican base,'' said McClusky, who said social conservatives view Romney as "an advocate of abortion.''

Letter to Tribune: Paul Weyrich, the chairman of the Free Congress Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, said Republicans have avoided nominating social moderates. He too predicted that any GOP candidate who held positions defending abortion would, if nominated, lead social conservatives to threaten to bolt the party.

"People would not stick with the party. They would go elsewhere, " Weyrich said. "Party officials know this. That is why they are not anxious for candidates like that.''

Romney says he is personally against abortion, but has said he backs the “basic Roe v. Wade abortion rights.'' In July 2001, however, The Salt Lake Tribune reported that Romney wrote a letter to the newspaper, stating: "I do not wish to be labeled pro-choice'' and balked at Utah media accounts that characterized him as an abortion-rights supporter.

Strong contender in '08: As for gay marriage, Romney's troubles with social conservatives stem from his support of a proposed state constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage but allow gay couples to join in civil unions that would provide many of the benefits and obligations of marriage.

Despite the concerns of social conservatives, many political analysts still give Romney a fair chance of emerging as a strong contender for the GOP nomination in 2008, if he chooses to run. They say his wealth, personally conservative lifestyle and religious values, and his record of business and political successes make him an attractive national Republican leader in the post-Bush era.

The analysts point out that fiscal conservatives praise Romney for his record as an anti-tax governor. They feel his personal opposition to abortion and his high-profile battle against gay marriage will blunt much of the right's attacks.

“The timing is right, and he's got tons of talent,'' said Stuart Stevens, a veteran Republican political consultant who worked on Bush's re-election effort.

"We like governors and people who have a moral compass and have had successes like he has in his life, in business, politics, running the Winter Olympics,'' Stevens said.

Romney has not said whether he will run in 2008. He has said he expects to run for re-election as governor in 2006, but has not firmly committed to that option, either.

Some political analysts are convinced that Romney's efforts to fight the implementation of gay marriage in Massachusetts give him some standing among the social conservatives. In June, he won plaudits from anti-gay marriage activists for his testimony before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee in support of an amendment to the U.S. Constitution banning same-sex marriage.

Nonetheless, after this year's presidential election, Romney's middle-of-the-road stand on abortion and civil unions is likely to stir antipathy. McClusky, of the Family Research Council, said groups with similar agendas as his would be actively involved in the primary battles to make sure Romney and other social moderates do not emerge as the party's standard-bearer.

"We as groups would do what we could to advertise his history on those issues important to us,'' McClusky said.

The socially conservative right is not ready to give up its leverage in the GOP presidential elections, said Weyrich, chairman of the Free Congress Foundation. It is a position that could cause problems for Romney and other moderates such as former Rudolph Giuliani of New York City or Gov. George Pataki of New York. In fact, Pataki's political adviser, Arthur Finkelstein, has warned that the Bush strategy of courting evangelical Christians may cripple moderate GOP figures such as Pataki.

Romney's past leadership in the Mormon Church also could pay dividends. Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, believes Romney's candidacy would energize a base of Mormon support that is present in every state. "It's an interesting network of activists around the country,'' Norquist said. Noting Romney would be the first president from the Mormon faith, Norquist added: "First at anything gives you credit.''