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WASHINGTON - Mitt Romney plotted a path to recovery for his presidential bid Wednesday after a disappointing showing on Super Tuesday, but his trek to the White House appears difficult if not impossible.
Romney, who held a top-secret meeting with strategists Wednesday, pledged to continue on after losing several states the night before.
He was expected to address a meeting of powerful conservatives in Washington today, hoping the right wing of his party would coalesce around his bid to block front-runner, Arizona Sen. John McCain.
Romney spokesman Kevin Madden declined to discuss the strategy session. "Internal meetings aren't discussed outside the office," he said.
A Romney senior adviser said on condition of anonymity that the campaign was making plans through at least March 4 when the big states of Ohio and Texas are slated to hold contests. But that also depended on how much more cash Romney was willing to dole out from his own fortune; Romney has spent more than $35 million of his own money already.
Romney carried his home state of Massachusetts as well as Utah, where he has strong ties, on Tuesday, and also won victories in Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota and Alaska. But he failed to take any southern state or delegate-rich ones.
"Last night was pretty devastating to Romney," says Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. "It's hard for him claim to be the conservative candidate and not win in the South."
Romney almost needs a clean sweep of approaching primaries, and he's not likely to get it. "His candidacy is certainty close to death," Zelizer says. "The only option is some huge scandal to blow up McCain's candidacy."
Indeed, Romney faces an almost insurmountable challenge to catch, let alone beat, McCain's delegate lead. Romney may have been a business wiz, but the question now is how good is he at math.
The Associated Press calculates that McCain now holds 703 delegates to Romney's 269, and it takes 1,191 delegates to clinch the GOP nomination. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had racked up 190 delegates and Rep. Ron Paul 14.
But there are only 1,181 delegates still up for grabs in future presidential primaries, and most of them are doled out proportionately by congressional district. Romney would have to trounce competitors in those contests to win a majority of those delegates.
A memo by McCain strategist Charlie Black lays out a bleak road ahead for Romney.
For Romney to match McCain's current haul of delegates, Black says, Romney would have to win "nearly every single delegate still available in order to become the nominee." In the next couple of weeks, too, primaries up for grabs appear to favor McCain, including contests in Washington state, Virginia and Maryland.
And adding to Romney's troubles is the fact that many of the remaining primaries are open to independents, a sector of voters McCain has done well with so far. Romney also still faces splitting the conservative vote with Huckabee, who grabbed several southern states on Tuesday.
"With Mike Huckabee still a factor in this race, particularly in the South, and many contests moving forward proportional, the math is nearly impossible for Mitt Romney to win the nomination," Black wrote in his memo.
Unlike after past elections, the Romney campaign did not offer an analysis of its own to reporters.
Madden, the Romney spokesman, shot back at Black's analysis, asking, "If it's mathematically impossible, why is it that the nomination hasn't been secured yet?"
On the plus side for Romney, if he and Huckabee remain in the race, McCain may have a hard time reaching the magical number of delegates needed to win the nomination, leading to a convention fight.
That scenario, though, imagines both candidates sticking with their campaigns through a barrage of pressure by GOP officials and news media pundits to abandon their race.