Dozens of private space companies have started up recently, but few if any will make it just like in other fields said Harvard astronomer Jonathan McDowell, who tracks launches worldwide.
"This is unlikely to be the one that will pan out," McDowell said.
NASA's last trip to the moon launched 40 years ago Friday. The United States is the only country that has landed people there, beating the Soviet Union in a space race to the moon that transfixed the world. But once the race ended, there has been only sporadic interest in the moon.
President Barack Obama canceled NASA's planned return to the moon, saying America had already been there. On Wednesday, the National Academy of Sciences said the nation's space agency has no clear goal or direction for future human exploration.
But the ex-NASA officials behind Golden Spike do. It's that old moon again.
The firm has talked to other countries, which are showing interest, said former NASA associate administrator Alan Stern, Golden Spike's president. Stern said he's looking at countries such as South Africa, South Korea and Japan. One very rich individual he won't give a name has also been talking with them, but the company's main market is foreign nations, he said.
The selling point is "the sex appeal of flying your own astronauts," Stern said.
Many countries did pony up millions of dollars to fly their astronauts to the Russian space station Mir and on American space shuttles in the 1990s, but a billion dollar price tag seems a bit steep, Harvard's McDowell said.
NASA chief spokesman David Weaver said the new company "is further evidence of the timeliness and wisdom of the Obama administration's overall space policy," which tries to foster commercial space companies.
Getting to the moon would involve several steps. Two astronauts would launch to Earth orbit, connect with another engine that would send them to lunar orbit. Around the moon, the crew would link up with a lunar orbiter and take a moon landing ship down to the surface.
The company will buy existing rockets and capsules for the launches, Stern said, needing to develop new spacesuits and a lunar lander.
Stern said he's aiming for a first launch before the end of the decade and then up 15 or 20 launches total. Just getting to the first launch will cost the company $7 billion to $8 billion, he said.
The company is full of space veterans; American University space policy professor Howard McCurdy called them "heavy hitters" in the field. Advisers include space shuttle veterans, Hollywood directors, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson and engineer-author Homer Hickam.