"If he doesn't sign, Afghanistan will go to civil war, and Karzai will be responsible," said Moeen Marastial, a former member of parliament who previously served in Karzai's government. "Not only military commanders but ordinary people know, if this agreement is not signed, and there is no support and training for the military, the soldiers won't be able to feed their families."
Few Afghan leaders and analysts had expected Karzai to dig in so strongly over the accord, especially after an influential council of tribal leaders and civic activists urged him this week to sign it.
Now that he has laid out additional demands — including that the U.S. government release all 17 Afghan prisoners being held at Guantanamo Bay — Karzai is facing criticism that his actions are being driven by personal grudges and paranoia.
The Americans should know that "the Afghans are not with President Karzai anymore," said Ahmad Saedi, a Kabul-based political analyst.
Political leaders and analysts in Kabul have various theories about why Karzai is holding out, including that he is facing pressure from Iran or wants to win U.S. support for his favored candidate in presidential elections next spring. Many analysts and political leaders believe that Karzai is overestimating the will of the Obama administration to continue the negotiations.
"There are high and growing levels of concern in Afghan society over the durability of the international commitment, and there are high and growing levels of concern in the international community, to include the American public, about whether we're really wanted," said James Dobbins, Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
During a meeting with U.S. national security adviser Susan Rice on Monday night, Karzai said he would sign the agreement only after he's convinced that no more U.S. soldiers would enter Afghan homes uninvited — a reference to nighttime anti-terrorism raids — and that the Obama administration would help start peace talks between his government and Taliban insurgents. To help start that peace process, Karzai requested the release of the Afghan prisoners at Guantanamo Bay.
By Wednesday, there were signs Karzai might be softening his demands. In an interview with Radio Free Europe, he reiterated his call for an end to U.S. troop raids on Afghan homes and the start of peace talks, but he didn't mention the prisoner issue.
"Whenever the Americans meet these two demands of mine, I am ready to sign the agreement," Karzai said.
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