Conventional wisdom says Redford's name will be called when the Oscar nominees are announced on Jan. 16 the first day of the 2014 Sundance Film Festival, coincidentally along with Bruce Dern for "Nebraska," Chiwetel Ejiofor for "12 Years a Slave," Tom Hanks for "Captain Phillips" and Matthew McConaughey for "Dallas Buyers Club."
On Wednesday morning, Redford's name was off the list of lead actor nominees for the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Those other four guys were nominated, as expected, but the fifth slot went to Forest Whitaker for "Lee Daniels' The Butler."
This morning, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced the Golden Globe nominees and Redford was back among the chosen ones.
Redford was nominated for Best Actor in a Drama, alongside Ejiofor, Hanks, McConaughey and Idris Elba for "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom." (Dern was a nominee for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy, along with Christian Bale for "American Hustle," Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Wolf of Wall Street," Oscar Isaac for "Inside Llewyn Davis" and Joaquin Phoenix for "Her.")
So the Oscar prognosticators have more data to crunch, to make predictions that will still be as accurate as throwing darts at a list of names.