This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2014, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
After soundly defeating Texas, the BYU Cougars now have the best chance of going unbeaten of any college football team in the country.
This is precisely the problem.
The independent schedule that allows the Cougars to have such a nice opportunity is the very same factor that will dog them all season, causing unending arguments in Utah and probably keeping them out of the four-team College Football Playoff, no matter how impressively they play.
It will get interesting around here, that's for sure. ESPN's Football Power Index gives BYU better odds than Oklahoma, Florida State and Oregon of completing a perfect regular season. As the Cougars enjoy their 41-7 pounding of Texas and prepare for Thursday's home opener vs. Houston, they can look ahead to a season of great possibilities — and considerable controversy about their schedule.
The Cougars already are evoking comparisons to 1984, as the school stages a 30-year reunion of the national championship team this week. That's coming from both complimentary and derisive perspectives.
The difference in 2014 is that the College Football Playoff is in place, and a selection committee that's vowing to emphasize strength of schedule will determine bids to every major bowl, not just the semifinals.
This is the worst possible year, for both BYU and Utah fans, to have the rivalry interrupted. BYU followers have to absorb in-state criticism of their team's schedule. Utah fans have to live with the fact they can't do anything to prevent BYU's national recognition, which is their own administration's doing.
The reality is that BYU has only a 1-in-5 chance of finishing the regular season 12-0, according to ESPN's calculations. BYU also will have to impress real people to receive an invitation to any major bowl.
The Cougars would have a tough time displacing any one-loss team from a Power 5 conference for a semifinal berth. They'll likely have to go unbeaten just to be ranked high enough to merit an at-large bid to one of the other bowls affiliated with the CFP — such as the Fiesta or the Peach, amid all of the contingencies involved.
BYU, ranked No. 15 by ESPN's formula, does have some intriguing games ahead. Yet Utah (No. 26) is ranked much higher than anybody on BYU's schedule, including road opponents Boise State (No. 45), Central Florida (No. 48) and California (No. 55).
We'll know more about UCF after Saturday's visit to Missouri, and maybe Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton will rediscover his game before coming to Provo next month. Virginia and Nevada have competed well against Pac-12 teams.
But athletic director Tom Holmoe's independent scheduling work definitely hit a dry spot in 2014, which will work both for and against the Cougars as this season unfolds. BYU quarterback Taysom Hill will post some phenomenal numbers and play his way into Heisman Trophy consideration, and the Cougars will climb in the polls — although nothing matters until the first CFP rankings are issued Oct. 28.
Much like Ty Detmer in 1990, with his scrambling touchdown pass vs. Miami, Hill has produced a signature play with his leap over a Texas defender on his way to the end zone. The trouble for Hill and his team is that Texas of '14 is not Miami of '90.
Hill's running ability alone will make BYU fun to watch, and he's a much improved passer. The Cougars are going to win a bunch of games, so the only issue is how much credit they'll deserve for those achievements.
While tackling their own schedule, the Cougars need the teams they've beaten to give them more credibility by delivering some good performances. As of now, UConn's 19-16 win over Stony Brook is not really helping the cause.
Twitter: @tribkurt —
Running the table?
College football teams with the best chances of winning all of their remaining games, based on ESPN's Football Power Index:
BYU 20.9%
Oklahoma 18.9%
Florida State 13.5%
Oregon 11.2%
Baylor 7.7% —
Heavy favorite
BYU's win probability in remaining games, according to ESPN:
Houston 84.4%
Virginia 82.7%
Utah State 95.3%
@Central Florida 72.4%
Nevada 92.7%
@Boise State 71.5%
@Middle Tennessee 87.9%
UNLV 99.0%
Savannah State 99.8%
@California 74.8% —
Houston at No. 25 BYU
P Thursday, 7 p.m.
TV • ESPN